Tuesday, 15:15 - 15:40 h, Room: MA 141


Angelos Georghiou
A stochastic capacity expansion model for the UK energy system

Coauthors: Daniel Kuhn, Wolfram Wiesemann


Energy markets are currently undergoing one of their most radical changes in history. Both market liberalisation and the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources highlight the need to accommodate uncertainty in the design and management of future energy systems. This work aims to identify the most cost-efficient expansion of the UK energy grid, given a growing future demand for energy and the target to move towards a more sustainable energy system. To this end, we develop a multi-stage stochastic program where the investment decisions (generation capacity that should be built) are taken here-and-now, whereas the operating decisions are taken in hourly time stages over a horizon of 30 years. The resulting problem contains several thousand time stages and is therefore severely intractable. We develop a novel problem reformulation, based on the concept of time randomisation, that allows us to equivalently reformulate the problem as a two-stage stochastic program. By taking advantage of the simple structure of the decision rule approximation scheme, we can model and solve a problem that optimises over the whole generation capacity of the UK energy system.


Talk 1 of the invited session Tue.3.MA 141
"Advances in stochastic programming" [...]
Cluster 22
"Stochastic optimization" [...]


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