Tuesday, 16:15 - 16:40 h, Room: H 3027


Galina Vakulina
Project risks analysis using approach of fuzzy sets theory


The report presents a method of analysis of the riskiness of the project
using fuzzy sets. The net present value or NPV used as the main
indicator of the effectiveness of the project. If the NPV takes value
less than zero, the project is considered to be ineffective. The main
objective of the work is describing a method to calculate the
probability that the project will be ineffective. The method is to
consider all the variables of the system as fuzzy numbers with certain
characteristics. Function NPV can be represented as a combination of
fuzzy parameters and is is also a fuzzy number. Different versions of
membership functions that can describe the parameters of the project and
the number of NPV can be considered. The
method is used in practice for the proposed business plan of the project.


Talk 3 of the contributed session Tue.3.H 3027
"Applications and algorithms" [...]
Cluster 7
"Finance & economics" [...]


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